The State of Indian Cinema in 2025: A Reality Check
By Harsha Matta
After a robust 2024 featuring hits like Stree 2, Pushpa 2: The Rule and Kalki 2898 AD, expectations for 2025 were extraordinarily high. The previous year had seen a noticeable shortage of major, star-driven “flagship” projects, which led many to believe 2025 would bring a wave of high-profile releases across industries—especially in Tamil cinema, with new films from Lokesh Kanagaraj and Mani Ratnam. Yet as the year has unfolded, there’s been a sharp contrast between this anticipation and the actual box-office performance of many big titles.
The post-pandemic era has completely reshaped Indian cinema. From 2022 through 2023, films like RRR, Jawan, Kantara, and Vikram not only broke records but also redefined the reach of regional cinema. RRR earned around ₹1,300 crore worldwide, while Jawan grossed over ₹1,160 crore, showing that audiences were eager to return to theaters after two years of lockdowns. However, as the trend of pan-India productions grew, so did the production timelines—many now taking two to three years to complete due to their scale, multilingual shoots, and extensive visual effects work. This lag caused a relatively quiet 2024, which in turn amplified expectations for a loaded 2025 release calendar.
Among the most awaited were Lokesh Kanagaraj’s Coolie and Mani Ratnam’s Thug Life, following their respective blockbusters Vikram and Ponniyin Selvan: I in 2022. Other major releases—War 2, Game Changer, Sikandar, Kingdom, and Retro—further contributed to the year’s hype. Unfortunately, despite massive marketing campaigns and record-breaking advances, most of these titles underperformed.
So, what went wrong this year?
The simplest explanation lies in economics. Budgets have become unsustainably inflated. For a film to qualify as a hit, it needs to earn nearly double its production cost, since producers usually receive only 50–60% of the gross revenue after taxes and theater cuts. Yet the returns this year haven’t come close. Coolie, for example, was mounted on a staggering ₹350 crore budget, with Rajinikanth reportedly earning ₹150 crore for his role—nearly half the film’s cost. While the idea of pairing Rajinikanth and Nagarjuna sounded groundbreaking, both actors ended up underutilized. The film grossed an estimated ₹460 crore worldwide, which might sound impressive but left little to no profit after expenses.
Thug Life, Mani Ratnam’s collaboration with Kamal Haasan, was even more disappointing, earning below ₹300 crore despite heavy pre-release hype. War 2—expected to be YRF’s biggest spy-universe film—ended up recording an estimated loss of ₹150 crore, marking one of the largest deficits in Indian box-office history. Likewise, Kingdom and Retro collapsed after their opening weekends, with weekday drops exceeding 50%.
A second major issue is writing—or rather, the lack of strong writing. Many of these films look spectacular on the surface, with world-class cinematography, strong performances, and exceptional production design. Yet they stumble narratively, especially in their climaxes. A flat or rushed ending doesn’t just weaken the story; it directly impacts audience retention. The opening weekend can be driven by hype, but poor word-of-mouth now spreads instantly online. When audiences feel shortchanged, attendance plummets within days, as seen with Retro’s 60% drop after day two.
This pattern has revealed a deeper truth about the industry’s current state: the formula that once guaranteed success—big stars, high budgets, and massive promotions—no longer works in isolation. The audience has evolved, and their expectations have shifted toward story-driven cinema that feels authentic rather than manufactured.
Still, this downturn may not be an outright crisis. It might, instead, be a painful but necessary correction. 2025 has exposed how heavily the industry leans on a star-first approach, often at the expense of creative quality. But that also means there’s room for a new model to thrive—one centered on writing, realism, and originality. The best evidence of this came from Malayalam cinema in 2024, where films like Manjummel Boys, Aavesham, and Premalu became massive hits despite modest budgets. Manjummel Boys alone earned over ₹240 crore worldwide, proving that great storytelling still commands audiences better than any multi-star spectacle.
If anything, 2025 should serve as a wake-up call. The year has been humbling for Indian cinema, but perhaps necessarily so. The future of the industry will depend on whether filmmakers learn from these costly lessons—understanding that spectacle without substance is no longer enough. In the new era of cinema, narrative will always outweigh name value, and content, not cost, will decide the box office.
Citations:
Times of India (Aug 2025)
Hindustan Times (Jul 2025)
Film Companion (Aug 2025)
Bollywood Hungama (Sep 2025)
Indian Express (Aug 2025)